Automotive Transmission Market Trends

Navigating the Automotive Transmission Market Landscape

As we enter 2024, the global automobile transmission market is undergoing a major transformation, influenced by a confluence of macro-factors. Electrification and hybridization are radically changing the design and functionality of the transmissions and forcing manufacturers to rapidly change. Regulations aimed at reducing emissions and improving fuel efficiency are pushing the industry to adopt more sustainable transmissions. Furthermore, changes in the way consumers use cars, with the growing popularity of driverless and connected vehicles, are driving the demand for new transmissions. The knowledge of these trends is vital for the transmission industry, as they not only determine how it will compete, but also what strategic research and development investments it will make, thereby influencing the future of the industry.

Top Trends

1. Electrification of Transmissions
   Electric vehicles are influencing the development of specialised electric transmissions. Leading companies like ZF Friedrichshafen are investing in dual-clutch and continuously variable transmissions (CVT) for EVs. By 2024, it is expected that more than 30% of all new cars will be electric. This trend will change the competitive environment.
2. Integration of Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS)
   Increasingly, ADAS is being integrated into the transmission systems of vehicles. This increases the vehicle’s safety and performance. Such companies as BorgWarner are developing intelligent transmissions that communicate with ADAS and optimize gearshifts. This trend will likely increase as governments around the world continue to tighten their regulations on vehicle safety. The trend will also lead to more collaboration between transmission manufacturers and technology companies.
3. Focus on Sustainability and Eco-Friendly Solutions
   In the field of automobiles, the manufacturers' main concern is the environment, and they are concentrating on introducing more and more environment-friendly drive systems. For example, Aisin Seiki is using lightweight materials and an energy-saving design to reduce exhaust emissions. The government is now introducing stricter exhaust regulations, and the demand for environment-friendly drive systems is expected to grow. This trend will not only enhance the reputation of the brand, but will also contribute to the realization of the international sustainable development goals.
4. Growth of Automated Manual Transmissions (AMTs)
   A new invention, the automatic transmission, has come on the scene, which combines a better balance between performance and fuel consumption. The AMT, which is being developed by the Eaton Company, will take a considerable part of the market by 2024. The increasing demand for ease of use and for economy is driving this trend. The AMT will be further improved by integrating hybrid systems, which will improve the performance of the vehicle.
5. Increased Adoption of Dual-Clutch Transmissions (DCTs)
   In the world of luxury and sports cars, double-clutch transmissions are becoming more and more common, because they allow for faster gearshifts and better fuel economy. GKN, for example, is introducing new double-clutch technology, which will soon be used in the production of mass-market vehicles. This is in response to the growing demand for improved driving experiences and performance. Future developments might include further reductions in weight and improved responsiveness.
6. Shift Towards Modular Transmission Designs
   Modular gearboxes are the latest craze, because they offer more flexibility and more possibilities for customizing vehicles. Magna International is the world leader in this field. This trend is expected to simplify the production process and reduce costs. The car industry, in its effort to optimize production, is likely to adopt the concept of a modular system as a matter of course.
7. Enhanced Connectivity and Software Integration
   The development of the Internet of Things is leading to the need for advanced software integration in powertrain systems. The main focus of manufacturers is the development of software that can optimize the performance of the powertrain based on real-time data. For example, Continental AG is investing in connectivity solutions that enable remote diagnosis and performance monitoring. It is expected that this trend will lead to improved vehicle reliability and customer satisfaction and will open up new possibilities for smart mobility.
8. Emergence of 3D Printing in Transmission Manufacturing
   A rapid prototyping process is being developed for the manufacture of transmission parts. Schaeffer AG is investigating the use of this technique for the manufacture of complex transmission parts. This development is expected to increase design flexibility and reduce lead times in production. This technology is expected to lead to more sustainable production methods and to the development of new products.
9. Regulatory Pressure for Fuel Efficiency
   Governments are imposing ever stricter regulations on fuel consumption, and this is driving the manufacturers to find ever more ingenious means of reducing the consumption of fuel. For example, the European Union has set itself ambitious reduction targets for CO2 emissions, which has led the manufacturers to develop more efficient engines and transmissions. The hope is that this kind of regulation will accelerate the introduction of advanced transmissions. In the future, the trend may well be for ever stricter regulations, which will have an even greater impact on the development of new technology.
10. Rising Demand for Performance-Oriented Transmissions
    Especially in the sports and luxury car segments, there is a growing demand for performance-oriented gearboxes. The suppliers are responding to this demand by enhancing the capabilities of their gearboxes. The companies like Jatco are concentrating on the development of high-performance continuously variable transmissions. This development is expected to result in competition among the suppliers to provide the best possible performance. The next step will be to add artificial intelligence to optimize the gearshift depending on the driving conditions.

Conclusion: Navigating the Competitive Transmission Landscape

In 2024 the market for automatic transmissions is characterized by a high degree of competition and significant fragmentation. The market is shared between traditional and new players. The geographical trends show a shift towards electrification and advanced transmission technology, which requires suppliers to adjust their strategies accordingly. The large suppliers use their reputation and extensive R&D resources to dominate the market, while the new players focus on innovation and flexibility to take the lead in niches. The most important capabilities will be the integration of artificial intelligence, automation of manufacturing processes, a focus on the environment and operational flexibility. Decision-makers must therefore prioritise these capabilities in order to be able to respond to changing customer needs and regulatory demands.